New Delhi-Kolkata-Dhaka Ties May Realign After West Bengal Outcome
The West Bengal election outcome may lead to a realignment of ties between New Delhi, Kolkata, and Dhaka, with potential implications for bilateral issues such as water management, border, trade, connectivity, and security, as the BJP’s successful “double engine” configuration in Bengal may facilitate more robust cooperation.
The BJP’s victory in West Bengal may pave the way for improved ties between New Delhi and Dhaka, with potential benefits for bilateral cooperation. However, the new government will need to navigate complex issues such as illegal immigration and deportations.
West Bengal election, New Delhi-Kolkata-Dhaka ties, BJP, Bangladesh, bilateral cooperation, water management, border, trade, connectivity, security
The outcome of the West Bengal election may lead to a realignment of ties between New Delhi, Kolkata, and Dhaka. The BJP’s successful “double engine” configuration in Bengal is expected to rid the Centre of state-level encumbrances that had hindered cooperation with Bangladesh in areas such as water management, border, trade, connectivity, and security. A Delhi-Kolkata alignment could lead to a more responsive India on bilateral issues, which would likely be appreciated by Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman.
However, the BJP government in Bengal will need to exercise restraint on issues such as illegal immigration, threat of mass deportations, unilateral border fencing, and CAA-NRC implementation, which were focal points of the party’s campaign. Dhaka has emphasized the importance of building a better understanding in the eyes of the public about the complexities in the relationship through positive signalling.
The new government will also need to be mindful of the geopolitical consequences of its actions and unfettered nationalist rhetoric on hot-button issues like illegal immigration. Bangladesh’s potential slide into China’s orbit, with Beijing emerging as a major security partner, would be detrimental to India’s interests in the neighbourhood.
One of the diplomatic upsides of the new government is the opportunity to work towards implementation of the 2011 Teesta river water-sharing agreement, which was blocked by TMC chief Mamata Banerjee. While the deal may not transform the relationship overnight, it can act as a positive step towards improving ties between the two countries.
The likelihood of the BJP forming a government in Bengal was raised in the Bangladesh Parliament last week, with an opposition MP warning that the party would “push all Bangladeshis into Bangladesh”, creating a major refugee crisis. The new government will need to navigate these complex issues carefully to avoid any adverse consequences for bilateral ties.
