Monsoon Set to Intensify After July 1, IMD Predicts Heavy Rain
India’s monsoon poised to gain momentum post-July 1 with above-normal rainfall forecast across most regions. IMD warns of drought-like conditions easing as seasonal rains intensify.
The south-west monsoon, which has been trailing behind due to weak conditions, is likely to revive significantly after July 1. Rainfall activity is expected to increase across the country from the second week of July onwards.
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Pune – The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast intensified monsoon activity across the country from July 1 onwards, offering hope for regions grappling with a significant rainfall deficit so far this season. The south-west monsoon, which has been advancing slowly over the past few days, is predicted to regain strength and deliver above-normal precipitation in the coming weeks.
According to the latest seasonal outlook from IMD, the first week of July (July 1-8) is expected to witness varying rainfall patterns across the nation. While most parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall during this period, the southern peninsula and certain areas of the northeast are projected to experience normal to excess rainfall. However, a dramatic turnaround is anticipated from the second week of July (July 2-8), when the entire country is expected to witness normal to above-normal precipitation levels.
The current weather scenario presents a concerning picture, with the nation experiencing a substantial monsoon deficit. Data reveals that the week ending June 24 recorded a 47% shortfall in rainfall compared to the long-term average. Furthermore, the total monsoon rainfall from June 1 onwards has been 42% below the seasonal norm, with central India bearing the brunt of the deficit at 59%.
An official from IMD, Meteorologist Suvarna Nair, explained the nuances of the current monsoon behavior. She noted that the monsoon’s advance has been slower than desired, with the current phase showing weak circulation patterns. “The monsoon’s behavior seems to be weakening initially before potentially strengthening. From June 26 to June 29, the monsoon circulation was found to be feeble, with no favorable conditions to accelerate its progress,” she stated.
Looking ahead, IMD scientists predict favorable conditions for monsoon advancement in the next three to four days. The south-west monsoon is expected to extend its reach into the Arabian Sea, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. This geographical expansion could bring relief to water-stressed regions across these states.
In a positive development for Maharashtra, which has been experiencing moisture deficit in its interior regions, IMD indicated that rainfall could return to these areas once the monsoon reaches the coastal regions. “If conditions remain favorable, the return of rains to coastal areas could gradually extend to the interior parts of Maharashtra,” the meteorologist said.
The meteorological department has also highlighted that the overall monsoon performance for the season remains crucial for India’s agriculture, which depends heavily on these rains for cultivation and water replenishment. With farmers across various states expressing concern over the delayed and deficient rainfall, the predicted revival could provide much-needed respite.
